Contextual factors among indiscriminate or larger attacks on food or water supplies, 1946-2015

This research updates previous inventories of malicious attacks on food and water to include data from 1946 through mid-2015. A systematic search of news reports, databases and previous inventories of poisoning events was undertaken. Incidents that threatened or were intended to achieve direct harm to humans, and that were either relatively large (number of victims > 4 or indiscriminate in intent or realisation were included. Agents could be chemical, biological or radio-nuclear. Reports of candidate incidents were subjected to systematic inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as validity analysis (not always clearly undertaken in previous inventories of such attacks). We summarise contextual aspects of the attacks that may be important for scenario prioritisation, modelling and defensive preparedness. Opportunity is key to most realised attacks, particularly access to dangerous agents. The most common motives and relative success rate in causing harm were very different between food and water attacks. The likelihood that people were made ill or died also varied by food/water mode, and according to motive and opportunity for delivery of the hazardous agent. Deaths and illness associated with attacks during food manufacture and prior to sale have been fewer than those in some other contexts. Valuable opportunities for food defence improvements are identified in other contexts, especially food prepared in private or community settings

Development of a GPU-based Monte Carlo dose calculation code for coupled electron-photon transport

Monte Carlo simulation is the most accurate method for absorbed dose calculations in radiotherapy. Its efficiency still requires improvement for routine clinical applications, especially for online adaptive radiotherapy. In this paper, we report our recent development on a GPU-based Monte Carlo dose calculation code for coupled electron-photon transport. We have implemented the Dose Planning Method (DPM) Monte Carlo dose calculation package (Sempau et al, Phys. Med. Biol., 45(2000)2263-2291) on GPU architecture under CUDA platform. The implementation has been tested with respect to the original sequential DPM code on CPU in phantoms with water-lung-water or water-bone-water slab geometry. A 20 MeV mono-energetic electron point source or a 6 MV photon point source is used in our validation. The results demonstrate adequate accuracy of our GPU implementation for both electron and photon beams in radiotherapy energy range. Speed up factors of about 5.0 ~ 6.6 times have been observed, using an NVIDIA Tesla C1060 GPU card against a 2.27GHz Intel Xeon CPU processor.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, and 1 table. Paper revised. Figures update

Universities and community-based research in developing countries: community voice and educational provision in rural Tanzania

The main focus of recent research on the community engagement role of universities has been in developed countries, generally in towns and cities and usually conducted from the perspectives of universities rather than the communities with which they engage. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the community engagement role of universities in the rural areas of developing countries, and its potential for strengthening the voice of rural communities. The particular focus is on the provision of primary and secondary education. The paper is based on the assumption that in order for community members to have both the capacity and the confidence to engage in political discourse for improving educational capacity and quality, they need the opportunity to become involved and well-versed in the options available, beyond their own experience. Particular attention is given in the paper to community-based research (CBR). CBR is explored from the perspectives of community members and local leaders in the government-community partnerships which have responsibility for the provision of primary and secondary education in rural Tanzania. The historical and policy background of the partnerships, together with findings from two case studies, provide the context for the paper

Developing an intervention to facilitate family communication about inherited genetic conditions, and training genetic counsellors in its delivery.

Many families experience difficulty in talking about an inherited genetic condition that affects one or more of them. There have now been a number of studies identifying the issues in detail, however few have developed interventions to assist families. The SPRinG collaborative have used the UK Medical Research Council's guidance on Developing and Evaluating Complex Interventions, to work with families and genetic counsellors (GCs) to co-design a psycho-educational intervention to facilitate family communication and promote better coping and adaptation to living with an inherited genetic condition for parents and their children (<18 years). The intervention is modelled on multi-family discussion groups (MFDGs) used in psychiatric settings. The MFDG was developed and tested over three phases. First focus groups with parents, young people, children and health professionals discussed whether MFDG was acceptable and proposed a suitable design. Using evidence and focus group data, the intervention and a training manual were developed and three GCs were trained in its delivery. Finally, a prototype MFDG was led by a family therapist and co-facilitated by the three GCs. Data analysis showed that families attending the focus groups and intervention thought MFDG highly beneficial, and the pilot sessions had a significant impact on their family' functioning. We also demonstrated that it is possible to train GCs to deliver the MFDG intervention. Further studies are now required to test the feasibility of undertaking a definitive randomised controlled trial to evaluate its effectiveness in improving family outcomes before implementing into genetic counselling practice.The National Institute of Health Research funded the study but any views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Authority. Funded by NIHR reference number: RP-DG-1211-10015

Men, maternity and moral residue:negotiating the moral demands of the transition to first time fatherhood

This article discusses men's transition to first time fatherhood, with a focus on the way they recognise various in-tension moral demands and negotiate an appropriate role for themselves. The findings are taken from a longitudinal study, drawing on elements of grounded theory, comprising a series of face-to-face and telephone interviews with 11 men over a 9-month period from the 12(th) week of pregnancy to 8 weeks after the birth. The analysis focuses on men's feelings and experience of exclusion and participation, and their response and reaction to that experience. The findings present two descriptive themes, ‘on the inside looking in’ and ‘present but not participating’, followed by third theme ‘deference and support: a moral response’ that exposes the dilemmatic nature of men's experience and explains the participants’ apparent acceptance of being less involved. The discussion explores the concept of moral residue, arguing that while deference and support may be an appropriate role for fathers in the perinatal period it may also be a compromise that leads to feelings of uncertainty and frustration, which is a consequence of being in a genuinely dilemmatic situation

Economic evaluation of complete revascularization for patients with multivessel disease undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of complete revascularisation at index admission compared to infarct-related artery (IRA) treatment only, in patients with multi-vessel disease undergoing Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (P-PCI) for ST-segment elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI). Methods: Economic evaluation of a multi-centre randomised trial comparing complete revascularisation at index admission to IRA-only P-PCI in patients with multi-vessel disease (12 month follow-up). Overall hospital costs (costs for P-PCI procedure(s), hospital stay and any subsequent readmissions) were estimated. Outcomes were major adverse cardiac events (MACE, a composite of all-cause death, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure, and ischemia-driven revascularisation) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) derived from the EQ-5D-3L. Multiple imputation was undertaken. The mean incremental cost and effects, with associated 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) were estimated. Results: Based on 296 patients, the mean incremental overall hospital cost for complete revascularisation was estimated to be –£215.96 (–£1,390.20 to £958.29), compared to IRA-only, with a per-patient mean reduction in MACE events of 0.170 (0.044 to 0.296) and a QALY gain of 0.011 (-0.019 to 0.041). According to the CEAC, the probability of complete revascularisation being cost-effective was estimated to be 72.0% at willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY. Conclusions: Complete revascularisation at index admission was estimated to be more effective (in terms of MACE and QALYs) and cost-effective (overall costs were estimated to be lower and complete revascularisation thereby dominated IRA-only). There was, however, some uncertainty associated with this decision

Where’s WALY? : A proof of concept study of the ‘wellbeing adjusted life year’ using secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data

Background The Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) is a measure that combines life extension and health improvement in a single score, reflecting preferences around different types of health gain. It can therefore be used to inform decision-making around allocation of health care resources to mutually exclusive options that would produce qualitatively different health benefits. A number of quality-of-life instruments can be used to calculate QALYs. The EQ-5D is one of the most commonly used, and is the preferred option for submissions to NICE (https://www.nice.org.uk/process/pmg9/). However, it has limitations that might make it unsuitable for use in areas such as public and mental health where interventions may aim to improve well-being. One alternative to the QALY is a Wellbeing-Adjusted Life Year. In this study we explore the need for a Wellbeing-Adjusted Life Year measure by examining the extent to which a measure of wellbeing (the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale) maps onto the EQ-5D-3L. Methods Secondary analyses were conducted on data from the Coventry Household Survey in which 7469 participants completed the EQ-5D-3L, Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale, and a measure of self-rated health. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlations, linear regression, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results Approximately 75 % of participants scored the maximum on the EQ-5D-3L. Those with maximum EQ-5D-3L scores reported a wide range of levels of mental wellbeing. Both the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale and the EQ-5D-3L were able to detect differences between those with higher and lower levels of self-reported health. Linear regression indicated that scores on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale and the EQ-5D-3L were weakly, positively correlated (with R2 being 0.104 for the index and 0.141 for the visual analogue scale). Conclusion The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale maps onto the EQ-5D-3L to only a limited extent. Levels of mental wellbeing varied greatly amongst participants who had the maximum score on the EQ-5D-3L. To evaluate the relative effectiveness of interventions that impact on mental wellbeing, a new measure – a Wellbeing Adjusted Life Year – is needed

Systematic reviews of complementary therapies - an annotated bibliography. Part 1: Acupuncture

Background Complementary therapies are widespread but controversial. We aim to provide a comprehensive collection and a summary of systematic reviews of clinical trials in three major complementary therapies (acupuncture, herbal medicine, homeopathy). This article is dealing with acupuncture. Potentially relevant reviews were searched through the register of the Cochrane Complementary Medicine Field, the Cochrane Library, Medline, and bibliographies of articles and books. To be included articles had to review prospective clinical trials of acupuncture; had to describe review methods explicitly; had to be published; and had to focus on treatment effects. Information on conditions, interventions, methods, results and conclusions was extracted using a pretested form and summarized descriptively. Results From a total of 48 potentially relevant reviews preselected in a screeening process 39 met the inclusion criteria. 22 were on various pain syndromes or rheumatic diseases. Other topics addressed by more than one review were addiction, nausea, asthma and tinnitus. Almost unanimously the reviews state that acupuncture trials include too few patients. Often included trials are heterogeneous regarding patients, interventions and outcome measures, are considered to have insufficient quality and contradictory results. Convincing evidence is available only for postoperative nausea, for which acupuncture appears to be of benefit, and smoking cessation, where acupuncture is no more effective than sham acupuncture. Conclusions A large number of systematic reviews on acupuncture exists. What is most obvious from these reviews is the need for (the funding of) well-designed, larger clinical trials

A randomised controlled trial to compare the cost-effectiveness of tricyclic antidepressants, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and lofepramine

Aim/ Principal Research Question - The main aim of the “AHEAD” study was to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of three classes of antidepressants: tricyclics (TCAs), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and the tricyclic-related antidepressant lofepramine, as first choice treatments for depression in UK primary care. Factors of interest - This is the first randomised prospective study in UK primary care to address this question. Most previous work on this topic has relied upon modelling and/or post hoc analysis of data collected for other purposes. The only other published trial of this type was conducted in HMOs in the United States.Methods - The study was an open label, pragmatic controlled trial with three randomised arms and one preference arm. Patients were followed up for a total of 12 months. Patients were randomised to receive a tricyclic antidepressant (amitriptyline, dothiepin, or imipramine), a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (fluoxetine, sertraline, or paroxetine), or lofepramine. Standardised recommendations about dose and dose escalation based on the BNF were issued to GPs. Cost effectiveness was based upon an analysis of direct costs from an NHS perspective.Sample groups - The study was carried out in UK primary care: 73 practices in urban and rural areas in Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset, Sussex, and Surrey agreed initially to take part. Patients with a new episode of depressive illness according to GP diagnosis were recruited. A total of 388 patients were referred to the study team by 87 GPs from 55 practices. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) were computed. Estimates were bootstrapped with 5000 replications.Outcome measures - At baseline the Clinical Interview Schedule, Revised (CIS-R PROQSY computerised version) was administered to establish symptom profiles. Outcome measures over 12 month follow-up included the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale self-rating of depression (HAD-D), CIS-R, EuroQol (EQ-5D) for quality of life, Short Form (SF-36) Health Survey for generic health status, and patient and practice records of use of health and social services (UHSS). The primary effectiveness outcome was the number of depression-free weeks (HAD-D less than 8, with interpolation of intervening values), and the primary cost outcome total direct NHS costs. Quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were used as the outcome measure in a secondary analysis. Findings - 327 patients were randomised. Follow-up rates were 68% at 3 months and 52% at 1 year. Linear regression analysis revealed no significant differences between groups in number of depression-free weeks when adjusted for baseline HAD-D. A higher proportion of patients randomised to TCAs entered the preference arm than those allocated to the other choices. Switching to another class of antidepressant in the first few weeks of treatment occurred significantly more often in the lofepramine arm and less in the preference arm. There were no significant differences between arms in mean cost per depression-free week. For values placed on an additional QALY of over £5,000, treatment with SSRIs was likely to be the most cost-effective strategy. Tricyclics were the least likely to be cost-effective as first choice of antidepressant for most values of a depression free week or QALY respectively, but these differences were relatively modest.Conclusion - Given the low probability of significant differences in cost-effectiveness, it is appropriate to base the first choice between these three classes of antidepressant in primary care on doctor and patient preferences. Adopting this policy may lead to less switching of medication subsequently. Choosing lofepramine is likely to lead to a greater proportion of patients switching treatment in the first few weeks.Implications for further research - It is difficult to see how a better study of this topic could be conducted in the primary care setting. The research agenda concerning the management of depression in primary care should move on to address important questions such as the most appropriate threshold of severity at which to commence antidepressant medication, the effectiveness of strategies to improve recognition of depression and quality of management of identified patients, and the efficacy of interventions to improve persistence in treatment taking by patients